UFC 196 Betting Preview
When lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos pulled from his next title defense against Connor McGregor 12 days ahead of the series, the UFC had options galore.
You see, in the same way the featherweight kingpin will inform you, any card headlined by the Dubliner is going to be a profitable bonanza. The marketing first offered the struggle to Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar, but neither answered the call.
Edgar had been coping with a groin injury that had prevented him from coaching for the many months, while Aldo’s coach said he was not in good enough shape conditioning-wise to select the battle on this short notice.
Former 155-pound champ Anthony Pettis was one fighter volunteering his services, linking the likes of Urijah Faber and Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone. Even B.J. Penn needed a shot McGregor.
Nate Diaz was also more than willing when contacted from the UFC. Dana White allowed the rumors to hang in the air for several hours before determining that the attention from fans was highest for a Diaz-McGregor showdown.
McGregor had informed the UFC he’d fight anyone on the roster at any given weight. When Diaz’s camp suggested that getting down to 155 on brief notice was too much, the UFC countered using a catchweight offer of 160 lbs. Diaz countered with 165.
Whenever the UFC known as’The Notorious,’ he said let’s just do it at 170. Thus, tonight’s main event for UFC 196 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas will be a five-rounder contested at welterweight. McGregor, the 145-pound champ, is shifting up two weight classes.
Ad Most books opened McGregor (19-2 MMA, 7-0 UFC) at around -300, but the odds have become more expensive with each passing day. As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had McGregor preferred in the -450 to -500 range. Diaz was approximately +380 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $380).
Now that we have arrived at combat day, most spots have McGregor at -500 or greater. The best payout for Diaz overseas is at 5Dimes, which includes him at +425.
The complete for’over/under’ wagers is 2.5 rounds (-200 to the’under,’ +165’over’). For those gamblers wanting to shave some of those’chalk’ yet still back McGregor, the prop for him to win within the distance doesn’t offer you much help (-278 at 5Dimes).
If you want to take McGregor’s advice that he’ll dust Diaz in the opening round, that brace provides a +170 yield. If you believe the pride of Ireland will make rapid work of Diaz, similar to his 13-second demolition of Aldo, there’s a prop at 5Dimes the battle won’t go 1:01 that offers a lucrative +550 yield.
For McGregor to win by TKO/KO (in any form ), the cost is -275 (risk $275 to win $100). We should note that Diaz has never been finished in the first round in 28 professional bouts.
In fact, Diaz (18-10 MMA, 13-8 UFC) has just been finished twice. He had been submitted by Hermes Franca at WEC 24 at the next round, and the 209 product suffered his only livelihood TKO loss to Josh’The Punk’ Thomson in the next round of their April 2013 showdown. (Diaz’s corner threw in the towel)
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